Oluchi Chibuzor and Jessica Erobomhan
The global average gross agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by 9 per cent by 2035, driven by productivity gains and broadly stable agricultural prices.
This is according to a new report released today by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The report projected that global cereal (grain) production will increase steadily, reaching a record 3.22 billion tonnes by 2035.
The growth, according the report, will be driven mainly by yield improvements of 0.9 per cent annually, while the land area under cereal cultivation is expected to expand by just 0.1 per cent annually, less than half the rate recorded during the previous decade.
However, the report estimates that if the frequency of shocks observed in recent years continues, there is a 25 percent probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than current levels.
The report released yesterday, titled, ‘OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035’, warned that short term risks are also significant, as recent energy price hikes and resulting reductions in fertiliser use are likely to affect agricultural production in 2027.
It also warned that while high-income countries will likely be able to absorb these shocks, low-income countries face deteriorating food security.
Speaking on the report, the FAO Director-General QU Dongyu said to sustain productivity growth in agrifood systems, “we must strengthen their resilience. Resilience is not about surviving the last shock; it is about preparing for the next one.
“By investing today in diversified trade corridors, regional reserves of critical agricultural inputs, resilient infrastructure, and a more diversified energy mix across agrifood systems that reduces dependence on oil, we can transform vulnerability into preparedness and ensure that temporary disruptions do not become food security crises.”
